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Big Wave trading

surfchaser

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Graph Paper view of Gold

Large wave patterns of confluence. Origin was when I used smaller timeframes. 24 hr = 1440 min. Now I rarely look smaller than 1hr yet use same template with various levels of zoom. Originally used range of 1-1440 sma wave based on median price. Set (mostly) horizontal levels of 50 pips off 1440 sma. SL 25 pips. (1/2 a block) Targets of 50, 100, 150 pips. Verticals are daily dividers. You may find this perspective interesting.

see attachments and MT4 template

View attachment #grey_wave white bk.tpl2018-03-16 15_25_18- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-16 15_24_26-1 [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-16 15_26_12- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-16 15_26_46- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg
 
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surfchaser

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marked up to show the underlying structure and boxes used for taking and managing positions

2018-03-16 17_00_50- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-16 17_01_32- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-16 17_03_27- [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg
 

Horne

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Very impressive looking charts! Fresh way of trading channels / repeating ranges.
 

surfchaser

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Thanks

Yes essentially just grid trading and trying to find an information edge to increase win ratios.
If its too "busy" you can then pick out the areas showing ma confluence and transfer them to another chart. What I learned is that it's not the SMAs you would think that cluster 20, 50, 100, 200 etc. but others.

2018-03-20 01  [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-20 1 [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg

Then you can just trade the edge of the wave....keeping the big wave as a reference.

2018-03-20 3 [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg

Which in the end is essentially just a grid...for targets and risk control.

Using the wave for confidence.

2018-03-20 4 [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg
 

surfchaser

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The reason for just plain jane moving averages is to be able to be platform independent. Moving averages are on any platform including mobile...

Market statistics, vwap, 3 pole butterworth filter, not so much.

You can pull the main confluence groups out of the big wave and separate into component moving averages. You can then take the median of the fastest bunch and gauge avg largest distance price extends from it before it "catches up". Then create a channel to catch extremes (similair to what the quantum filter talked about on this site seems to do. maybe) I use these points to take profit rather then to enter, however.

In the case of Gold the largest moves in higher volitility seem to be 300-350 pips from a 125-131 sma range. Currently they are around 230-250 pips. Set a channel there and you end up with a fairly accurate long term market view... see picts. If price blows out a narrower channel at the extreme just wait untill it re-enters.

Of course it's more about what's in your head then what's on the chart...

2018-03-20 7  [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-20 8  [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg2018-03-20 9 [XAUUSDi,H1].jpg
 

surfchaser

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Concept -
Trend trading with defined entries/targets and exhaustion points for risk management.

Chart -
50 sma on median price with corresponding 50, 100, 150 pip bands for targets. Use bollinger area between .5 and .75 standard deviations as optimum entry. Implying a trend has begun.

Use 50 pip pricing grid also for guidance.

Additional optional
- use 4sma ribbon of median, high, and close. Try to avoid chasing price. Don't buy on new highs or sell on new lows. Long entries when price between median and low. Short entries when price between median and high. Exits are the opposite. Exit a long at new highs. Exit a short at new lows. (once target is achieved)

Hard rules -
Only enter long above the 50sma. Only enter short below the 50sma. Entries at bollinger area between .5 and .75 standard deviations only. Think of the 50sma area and pip bands as repellent. Take profit at pip bands (50 pip possibly, 100 pip, and 150 pips).

2nd band (+/-100pip band) is too extended for an entry and would mean you are chasing price. Never enter more than 75 pips away from 50sma and preferably within 50 pips.

Discretionary -
Use 4sma ribbon for directional guidance
if necessary for confidence.

Optional
Duplicate primary setup using 600sma, bollinger entry and (3) 50pip bands on either side from it to allow switch to 5min timeframe for possibly more granular entries. Use monotone to blend with background under normal 1hr viewing.

Loose rules -
Use grids created by 600sma and bands to monitor price movement.
Use whole number grids @ 1340, 1345, 1350, 1355 , etc. to monitor progress as well. Let price advance block by block in direction of trade but do not let price return back in opposite direction of trade across a grid line.

Other -
Only other ADVANCED trade entry is a "return to home" AFTER a 3rd band overrun (price is overextended/exhausted) the price will often return back to the 50 sma and sometimes even fall back to -50 pip mark on opposite side of 50sma. The “Return to home” entry will be @ the 100 pip band back towards the 50 sma or at latest the bollinger area ....only after price has extended beyond the 150 pip band and come back inside it. It also usually makes a brief double top or bottom sometimes exceeding the previous high or low before the return home. Note: This trade is dangerous in a strongly trending market as are all counter trend plays.

note: 50 pip bands are set for XAU/USD. For oil you just need to change levels on 50sma from from 500 to 50

Your mileage may vary, all exclusions apply, may cause temporary chart fatigue, account bleeding, marriage difficulties. Above terms subject to change without notice. Actual crash results may vary. All sales final. Avoid alcoholic beverages while using this product. No investment advice implied or given.

2018-04-13 12_09  [XAUUSDi,H1].jpgView attachment #framework.tpl
 

surfchaser

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If you like the square root stuff .. see Gann , Michael Jenkins, Hurst, etc.

Here is Gold 1H with S/R on Square of 9 support levels (light blue) with perfect square exp moving averages (dotted black) from sq9 diagonal ... 9, 25, 49, 81, etc (3x3=9 , sqRT9=3 +2=5 5^2=25 next one is sqRT25=5 +2=7 7^2=49 , etc ) .. The light red are murray math taking the pefect squares and dividing the range by 8. ex 1296 (36^2) - 1225(35^2) = 71 , 1/8 = .125 , .125x71= 8.875 so divide the range into portions 8.875 ea . These work out close to the Gann levels. Murray would argue they are more exact ;)

anyhow here's a metatrader template. have fun.

View attachment #roots.tpl2018-07-12 13_47_55-XAUUSD h1.jpg2018-07-12 13_57_38-sq9 levels.jpg2018-07-12 13_50_53-sq9.jpg
 

surfchaser

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Eurusd

metatrader template attached...

Here's a EURUSD chart. I don't trade it but throwing this out there.
Expectation is that if you have a trend as defined by hard wave edges (highlighted by big blue arrows on chart) then with EURUSD a typical retrace goes to the squaring of 35 pips below the close with a target 35 pips above the same close. See blue areas for entry and red areas for targets. Loosely based on the concept of price in a strong trend retracing to the Sqrt of the Sqrt of price with the major support sitting at the Sqrt.

2018-08-22 18_21_26-EURUSD.jpg

View attachment #EURUSD.tpl
 

surfchaser

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I find that square roots are a powerful concept for finding measured move entries and targets...I mentioned this previously but think I was not very clear.

ex. Gold is approx @ 1287 ... sq rt is 35.87 ... sq rt of that is 5.98 ... = 60 for number to use

1HR chart

- exhaustion Bands use sqRt(sqRt)sma on close price (color black) with corresponding +/-2x(sqRt(sqRt)) and +/-3x(sqRt(sqRt)) pip bands in either side (color light green) for target awareness and to monitor exhaustion. You only really need the 3rd band to show ultimate exhaustion (plus side benefit of cleaner chart)

- entry and target areas use 1 ema on close (color blank) with corresponding sqRt(sqRt) and -sqRt(sqRt) bands in either side (color light red)

with Gold you would use
60 sma of close with bands at 120 and 180 +/- pips
1 ema of close with bands at 60 +/- pips

the measured move that you are looking for is approx 120 pips

Da rules -
Only enter in direction of daily trend. ( I would suggest breaks of 2 day H/L )
Try to avoid chasing price. There is ALWAYS another opportunity.
Entry with trend at retrace to light red band levels with initial target at corresponding opposite +/- red band level. This essentially defines measured moves of length +/-sqRt(sqRt) to +/-sqRt(sqRt).
DO NOT trade 1st continuation retrace level after a 3rd band overrun. Price is exhausted. Wait for 2nd continuation retrace inside midpoint to +/-2x(sqRt(sqRt)) area at a minimum.
Between 2nd band and 3rd band is extended for an entry and would mean you are chasing price if trading with trend. Avoid entries here.

chart shows entry areas in blue and target areas in yellow. Trend reversal in magenta at break of 2 day Low

2019-01-05 XAU.jpg
 
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