A Cable View

[HiArt99]

Hi Folks,

I am developing an EA for Spinning D's Mechanical Approach. Whilst looking at the setup's for this, and using my experience, I am noticing some decent trades on Cable.

To start with, you need to set up 2m Range bars. I am using "Range Bars new format 1" EA on a 1m chart using ICMarkets demo metetrader using inputs: Range Bars 50, TimeFrame 2, MaxBars 8000, false, false.

On the offlime GBPUSD M2 chart I have "Pivot Points (daily shifted)" indicator and a standard 14-bar CCI.

You should be able to locate the EA and the indi elsewhere on this forum, as i got them from here.

I am way too busy to spend hours per day watching charts, so I am looking at cable at around 8:15 (London Time), give or take a few minutes. My plan is to post my view of the chart at roughly that time, health, work and vacations allowing!

8:15 allows a view of early market sentiment.

I am looking at the price action around the pivots and big round numbers and/or divergence on the CCI, and also using these to build a view on possible stops and targets.

I won't take a trade with less than 1:1 risk/reward. I am only looking for 15 - 25 pips. 1 trade per day. If I am not happy with the setup at 8:15 (ish) then no trade for me.

Example for today. Please forgive the open trade that the aforementioned EA has triggered.




I think that the divergence is easy to spot. if this is going to go up then S1 or the tops of the "M" pattern (where I have drawn a red line) looks like a good target. This is 20 pips away, so within my target allowance. How low could this go? I had to suspect a stop hunt at 1.31000 big round number and/or S2, so my 1:1 criteria had to be below these, and at 1.3093, this was perfect. Entry 1.3113, stop 1.3093 and target 1.3133.

Easy to say this in hindsight, so I will try to post my view at around 8:30 London.

I am paper trading this as I am still developing my trading plan for this.

[Admin]

Good to see some other Range bar trading! All too rare in the trading sphere.

Following with interest.

[HiArt99]

Sorry a tad late this morning.



No trade for me. Price is in the middle of nowhere, so it is a toss up on direction.

My view is to short this as price is between Daily PP and S1. I think a retest of yesterday S2, Daily PP and the 1.3100 level is likely, I see some indecision late yesterday around here. Folks already in Sell's will have their stops around here, so the big boys could hover these up before moving the price down, if they need to fill their quotas.

More likely is a meander down to yesterday S3/1.3050 BRN, some indecision then continue short. Problem for the big boys is there'll be a pool of take-profits sitting here.

[HiArt99]

Attachment 225

So easy to get a tricky Monday wrong, as market sentiment can change over the weekend.

I am looking at a lot of Price Action from Friday, which is providing resistance, and as the Open was below Daily PP, and with 1.3050 close by I am thinking short using the high of late Friday trading as cover.

I am not going to trade this as London Open hasn't indicated today's sentiment, and there isn't any divergence either. If I was, given a double-top in the Asian session, I'd sell a touch of Daily PP (1.3043), stop above the red line (1.3063) with a target of 1.3023 in-line with my 20-pip target. I also note that whilst price has not pushed through this block this morning, it hasn't shown a lot of energy in moving away and it is actually showing higher lows rather than lower highs, this block may be about to turn in to support!

[HiArt99]

Quite a determined move downwards overnight, and as price opened between Daily Pivot and S1 my initial thoughts are sell.

However, price is close to S1, and I would expect that overnight move to be tested at some stage. It would be unusual for price to keep going without a reversal somewhere!

So a move back to the yellow box, and 1.3035 looks a decent entry given where the push started (see arrow). +20 stop is 1.3055, so I'll add a couple as I dont like using multiples of 5 for my stops. Profit at 1.3015 is nicely in the consolidation zone.

I will kill the trade if not satisfied by 09:30 (London time).

"Don't try to catch a falling knife", so price may just fall away, I can't get on without a retrace to somewhere and I dont see the consolidation at 1.3010 as significant on this evidence.

[HiArt99]

Yesterday's trade did not trigger. price just fell away, and even in hindsight I couldn't see a place where I'd have wanted to get on.

Today, the open above Daily Pivot (DP) but below R1 has me thinking long. No divergence, but there does seem to be a little channel with 1.3000 providing some support. So I am entering at 1.3004, stop 21 pips to use DP as protection at 1.2983, and therefore target is 1.3025

I am at a religious retreat all next week, so there won't be any analysis.

[HiArt99]

Got yesterday wrong, ho hum, it happens.

Sorry, today got wrapped in the joys of VAT (sales tax) returns.

100% hindsight, but I wouldn't have had a traded this morning. I can see the upwards pressure but DP (daily pivot) was to close to go long.

I see a little while later DP provided support, and had I been around, a nice little trade.

[HiArt99]

Now here is the type of setup I like to see!

Uptrend looks like it might have stalled at 1.3050 as it hasn't convincingly pushed through. Looking at the highs and lows, looks to me like we have some divergence here that also signals trend reversal. I can get in using R1 as protection. R1 is 1.3065, and I'll add a couple of pips. I have taken (paper trading this for at least the rest of the year) 1.3044 with a target of 1.3021.

Had I the time to wait, I would have liked to see this make a lower low, and then get in on a retrace back to the 1.3050 area, but I don't.

Just a reminder that I am at a spiritual retreat all next week and won't be posting anything.

UPDATE


So close! Closed for a small 6 pip profit. We can see that the early morning resistance has now become support. Probably should have considered this when setting the target. NFP today, so don't want an open trade, and price action will probably stagnate in the run up to this news event.

[HiArt99]

Yeah Gods, yuck. Huge drop on open this morning and I won't go near this. I expect price to meander back to Daily Pivot, and I suppose you could use 1.3100 as protection, but I want the market to settle down and I don't believe that it has as yet.

[HiArt99]

Oh well, yesterday would have worked, but it was too risky for me.




Missed the boat this morning, no point in chasing the trade.

[HiArt99]

Missed the boat again this morning



We can see resistance at Daily Pivot and no appetite to retest 1.3200. CCI appears to support a sell.

If I could have got in at the shaded area, target would have been down 1.3150 area, 20 pips from entry.

[HiArt99]

50-50 shot here. I can see 1.3100 is providing resistance, and the lower high suggests sell, but S1 too close to take a sell. However CCI is not indicating a lot of enthusiasm for this move, and I could easily see a reversal, but 1.3100 too close too!

I can't see a clear trade, so yet another sit on hands day.

I suspect if I come back to my charts later we'll see a rejection of either 1.3100 or S1 that'll give a good clue as to where this going. Or 1.3100 or S1 will significantly break and you could enter on a retrace. But as I said in my initial post, I am only available for a few short minutes around London open.

[HiArt99]

Could this be any more sideways?

Need a strong breakout in either direction, with a hope to catch the retrace. Got to be very careful as a false breakout is possible, where price limps through the top/bottom of the range before reversing.

So, a sit on hands week where patience and discipline have been the watch-words.

[HiArt99]

Frustratingly another no trade day. I expect price to hit the 1.3100/R1 confluence, but the target is only 14 pips. I'd still take the trade but a 14 pip stop has no protection, that is is not behind a pivot, big round number or obvious recent support/resistance. Therefore, the trade does not meet the criteria in my trading plan.

I could force a trade if I targeted R1 as there is a swing low I can use for the stop, the key word here is force!

[HiArt99]

Fortunately didn't force a buy yesterday. I totally overlooked the slight divergence and a sell would have been the correct call.



Taking this buy today though. Stops just behind 1.2950 at 1.2947, with a 21 pip target looking for a test of the 1.3000/Daily Pivot confluence.